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B.C.'s headed for the worst salmon catch in 50 years, and little or no local sockeye will be available in shops and restaurants, federal fisheries officials said yesterday.
"You are going to see limited opportunity to buy salmon," said
Brian Riddell, regional head of salmon-stock assessment for the Department of Fisheries and Oceans.
The entire B.C. sockeye fishery may be shut down this year, and the Fraser sockeye run is expected to be closed to commercial fishing, Riddell said.
Department forecasters predict 2.9 million sockeye will return to the Fraser. The run can hit 15 million fish, but 2008 is the lowest of a four-year cycle, compounded by the effects of a catastrophic food deficit in 2005.
The Skeena River sockeye run is forecast at 1.5 million, compared with the usual three-to-five million fish.
It's likely that only aboriginals will be permitted to take Fraser sockeye, Riddell said.
If runs are so low that only enough fish return to meet stock-conservation targets, even natives could be shut out, he said.
Natives are entitled to catch salmon for food and for social and ceremonial purposes. They are first in line once conservation targets are met.
This season could bring the worst salmon returns ever, said Ernie Crey, adviser to the Sto:lo tribal council.
Half of B.C.'s native population will lose their principal source of protein if native fisheries are shut, Crey said.
"What do they do to replace it? The answers are not immediately evident," he said, adding that many of the 94 communities that rely on salmon are impoverished.
In 2005, warm ocean conditions reduced food supply for salmon and attracted more predators.
"We've never seen a year of poor [salmon] marine survival like we did in 2005," Riddell said. "It was an extraordinary event."
Only 1.3 per cent of Chilko Lake sockeye smolts born in 2005 survived, compared to a long-term average of nine to 10 per cent, Riddell said.
The smolts born into those conditions are the ones to return this summer.
But ocean temperature cooled in subsequent years, which bodes well for future salmon survival, he said.
"This is a temporary problem. There's no reason to think that we won't see better years in the future," Riddell said.
To ensure long-term health of salmon stocks, fisheries must put more resources into protecting rivers and spawning grounds, as logging, mining and similar activities can cause siltation and heating, reducing spawning success, said Jeffery Young, a biologist with the David Suzuki Foundation.
Ethan Baron, The Province
Published: Tuesday, June 17, 2008
ebaron@png.canwest.com
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