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Back in 2005, the left leaning COPE, split into two parts, one led by Larry Campbell, which we today still call COPE, and a new, centre-leaning party that became known as Vision Vancouver, headed by Jim Green. Vision went into the last election neck and neck with Sam Sullivan and the NPA, but lost, they say, because of an Independent challenger by the name of James Green, who voters apparently confused with the Vision head.
It is believable, but nonetheless, Sam Sullivan is the Mayor and Jim Green is no longer in the picture. The void at the top of the Vision Vancouver party is now going to be filled, by one of three big-name candidates.The biggest of which is probably Gregor Robertson, who is currently a Member of the Provincial Legislature under the NDP banner. He is also the founder of the Happy Planet Juice Company. He is smart, young, and has a great resume. Second on the list, stature-wise, is probably Raymond Louie, who Larry Campbell said in 2007 would be a future Mayor, and who has been on council for 6 years. He has an advantage of running to be the first Mayor of Chinese ancestry as well, as it means backing of a large community within the city, financially and on election day. Alan DeGenova is a five-time running Parks commissioner and now has the official backing of Larry Campbell, swiping it away from Louie.
They all have great resumes, but they all have to contend with COPE councilor David Cadman, who wants to heal the split and run a joint campaign against Sam Sullivan together. Vision has said it is open to working with COPE, but only if their mayoral candidate receives their unconditional endorsement, whether it's Robertson, Louie or DeGenova in the end. Cadman doesn't want to do this, and it may end up splitting the vote against Sullivan. Unless a perfect scenario happens, COPE will run against Vision Vancouver, leaving about half the voters to Sullivan, making his re-election easier.
Robertson, Louie and DeGenova all agree that Sullivan needs to go after 3 years of inaction and over-action, both in the case of the homelessness/drugs issue. They all have ideas on how to do better, with more social housing, increasing the minimum wage, and green plans for the city. There is youth, experience, and noble goals all over this slate, but the real question is, can any of them beat Sam Sullivan? The nomination is set for June 15, where two of the worthy contenders will be knocked out of the race. One or both could easily run independently, just as Peter Ladner will likely do against Sam Sullivan on the right, fragmenting things even further. DeGenova, Robertson, and Louie could all run a successful campaign against Sullivan based on their experience, and their support among the community, but the question remains, as always, with the people marking the ballots, and writing the comments.
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